Israel’s latest ceasefire with Hamas offers temporary relief but won’t lead to lasting peace, according to UL Professor Neil Robinson. Speaking in a recent interview with the Limerick Voice Podcast, the professor of comparative politics warned that the deal’s fragile foundations, coupled with both Israel and the USA’s questionable commitment to the deal, could see the conflict reignite.
“The ceasefire means that Israel has temporarily halted its assault on Gaza and Hamas will not fire on Israel from what parts of the Gaza Strip it remains in control of,” Robinson explained.
“The sweetener for this ceasefire was the return of Israeli hostages and the promise to return the corpses of those hostages who died in Hamas captivity.”
As part of the agreement, Israel has released several thousand Palestinian prisoners from both Gaza and the West Bank, a gesture meant to pave the way for broader negotiations.
Yet the professor warned that the Knesset’s divided stance on the issue may undermine any progress.
“There are members of the Israeli government who were very reluctant to sign up to the peace deal, and probably only did so because they were pressurised into doing so by the United States,” Robinson said. “Those people are probably already looking for an excuse to get out of the deal.”
He suggested that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, facing ongoing corruption trials in Tel Aviv this week, may be incentivised to abandon the ceasefire.
The deal’s requirement for Hamas to return 24 bodies of deceased hostages has already proven contentious, with delays fuelling mistrust.
Robinson cautioned that retrieving the remains amid Gaza’s devastation was always going to be “very, very difficult,” adding that identifying corpses “in vast amounts of rubble” would require considerable time and coordination.
“It’s possible that the Israelis will use this to say Hamas has broken its agreement and therefore they should go back to the full-scale assault,” he added.
AMERICA’S ROLE
When asked about the role of the Trump administration in peace talks, Robinson was clear-cut with his verdict: “If America hadn’t pushed for this, then it wouldn’t have happened.”
However, he noted that “getting the ceasefire is the easy bit” and that sustaining a peace process would demand both significant patience and resources that Washington may lack.
Looking ahead, Robinson painted a bleak picture of the region’s political prospects.
While he outlined a best-case scenario involving new elections in Gaza and the formation of a consensus Palestinian government, he ruled that that scenario was “probably not” realistic.
“There are too many moving pieces here — fragile pieces — which can fall apart and fly off at any moment,” he said. “It will probably require some greater effort from outside, in particular from the United States, to enforce a solution.”
When asked about Israel’s political future, Robinson suggested that while Netanyahu may lose a future election, “whether the opposition has the ability to form a government is another question.”
There were four elections in Israel between 2019 and 2022. The next national election is expected to occur in late 2026.
IRELAND’S ROLE
Turning focus to Ireland, Robinson noted that Irish students show particular engagement with the issue.
“There’s quite a depth of feeling about the issue of Palestine in Ireland, far greater than elsewhere,” he said, pointing to Ireland’s early recognition of Palestinian statehood and support for pro-Palestinian candidate Catherine Connolly in the presidential race.
“I think Irish students are relatively engaged on this issue,” Robinson said. “You can see ears prick up a little bit — as much as ears ever prick up when I’m lecturing.”
The full interview, along with ceasefire discussion from Chief News Reporter Abigail Hayden and a weekly sports round-up from Sports Editor Andrew Moynihan, can be found on last week’s Limerick Voice Podcast, available on Spotify now.